The current state of 4G in the UK

June 24, 2012 — Leave a comment

With the rapid increase in mobile data consumption that has been seen in the UK over the last few years, you could be forgiven for thinking that 4G, which will herald the end of mobile network congestion, is just around the corner. Unfortunately, this is not so – in the UK, at least.

While America, who have traditionally lagged behind in mobile network innovation, and our European neighbours either already have commercial 4G networks available, or are about to be launched imminently, it appears that the UK is unable to move past the consultation stage for the spectrum auction which will allow the deployment of the next-generation of mobile networks in the UK.

Who is to blame? Well, quite simply, it is the operators. As Ed Vaizey correctly pointed out on Thursday, every single mobile operator has threatened to sue Ofcom at one point or another over their proposed spectrum auctions. The threats of legal action go back as far as 2008, before it was even clear that the extra spectrum would be used for 4G. The reason being that, at the time, Ofcom were considering other spectrum proposals which meant that T-Mobile at the time said that this meant they didn’t know how much spectrum to bid for. Had this legal challenge not been made, the auction may have gone ahead in 2008!

Alas, it did not. In 2009, Ofcom had another go – however this time their proposal barred O2 and Vodafone from participating unless they gave up some of their 900Mhz spectrum. Surprisingly, it wasn’t O2 and Vodafone that had too much of an issue with these proposals, as they were happy to keep their 900Mhz spectrum, but it was again T-Mobile who wanted Vodafone and O2 to be forced to release some 900Mhz spectrum. Later on, Vodafone and O2 decided they did have an issue, as they felt that the merger of T-Mobile and Orange meant that Everything Everywhere (EE) now had too much 1800Mhz spectrum.

Then the 2010 general election meant that any spectrum auction would have to be delayed until the election had finished and the new government finalized their policies. This happened in July 2010, with Ed Vaizey saying that the auctions should take place by the end of 2011. Obviously, this didn’t happen with legal threats by Vodafone and O2 still very likely.

This forced Ofcom to go back to the drawing board, and come up with some new proposals. And Ofcom did just that in January 2012, proposing that spectrum should be reserved for a fourth operator, most likely to be Three. However, this reserved spectrum would not necessarily be in the 800Mhz band. However, it was also revealed in these proposals that Everything Everywhere had applied to re-farm their 1800Mhz spectrum for 4G services. This would have allowed Everything Everywhere to roll-out 4G early, however, would have given them a monopoly position. At the same time, Everything Everywhere were unhappy with the rest of the proposals, as they gave them no guarantee of sub-1000Mhz spectrum.

In March 2012, Ofcom gave preliminary backing to EE for their 1800Mhz re-farming. This now meant that Vodafone were unhappy, both with the spectrum auction proposals, as they felt that spectrum didn’t need to be reserved for Three, and with the 1800Mhz spectrum re-farming. O2 were also unhappy with the spectrum re-farming proposals. While the final decision has yet to be announced, it is very likely that Ofcom will deny Everything Everywhere permission to re-farm their 1800Mhz spectrum until after the 800Mhz and 2600Mhz auctions have finished, to prevent further threats of litigation.

And that brings us to now. I’m sure there are probably some small parts missing in that, and I haven’t discussed all of the litigation threats that have been made by various networks, but this is the gist of the current situation. Every single network at some point has held this process up, while at the same time claiming to be acting in the interests of consumers.

Officially, the auctions are still expected to commence by the end of 2012. However, with both Three and Everything Everywhere being unhappy that they are not guaranteed spectrum below 1000Mhz, and Vodafone and O2 disagreeing that any network should be reserved any spectrum, it is likely that the auctions will be delayed even further, and there does not appear to be any light at the end of the tunnel as of yet. Meanwhile, the rest of the world are gaining access to super-fast mobile data while the UK remains stuck in the slow lane.

In 4G, General, Roundup, Spectrum , , , , , , ,
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Everything Everywhere readying 4G lobbying campaign

April 20, 2012 — Leave a comment

According to mobile today, Everything Everywhere (EE) are launching a lobbying campaign called ’4G Britain’ later this month which supports the early roll-out of 4G.

What doesn’t seem to be clear is whether campaign is aimed towards getting EEs 1800Mhz LTE plan pushed through, or whether it is attempting to get the entire 4G process on the road quicker. Given that it is EE behind this, it is most likely to be the former.

I still support allowing EE to refarm their 1800Mhz spectrum to 4G, however, I don’t feel that it is really appropriate to create a lobbying group to pressure Ofcom into pushing through the proposals without taking other stakeholders comments into account.

There is, however, a need for a campaign group like this which will champion the swift completion of Ofcoms 4G auctions and rollout of 4G services in the UK. The entire process has been beset by delays and the UK is now far behind other countries in getting any sort of commercial 4G service up and running.

News on the progress of the 4G auctions has been scarce as of late, other than for yet more thinly veiled legal threats from the operators, this time from Three who have made it clear that they will be pursuing a guarantee from Ofcom that 800Mhz spectrum will be reserved for a fourth operator.

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LTE at 600Mhz and 700Mhz?

March 29, 2012 — Leave a comment

Ofcom is considering releasing extra spectrum in the 600Mhz and 700Mhz bands in order to accommodate an increase in demand for mobile data.

These frequencies are currently used for TV broadcasting, however a re-plan could release space for LTE in the future.

The release of 700Mhz for LTE could be quite useful. It is one of the frequencies used in the USA for LTE, so there should be a decent number of devices that support it. The 600Mhz, however, would probably be less useful.

These plans won’t have any effect on the upcoming spectrum auctions, however, as the earliest Ofcom is looking at releasing this spectrum is 2018. That is, if Ofcom manages to get the 800Mhz auctions done before then.

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Safeguard for a fourth operator?

March 22, 2012 — Leave a comment

Do we really need a safeguard for a fourth operator in the upcoming spectrum auctions?

Today is the deadline for feedback on Ofcom’s 4G auction proposals, and both Vodafone & o2 have submitted comments.

Both of them question whether a safeguard for a fourth operator is needed, and while I do want to see Three do well, I have to agree with them. Hutchison Whampoa is not a small company. While their subsidiary, Three, is the smallest operator in town, they are in no way at risk of being ‘bullied’ out of the auctions by the incumbents. They wouldn’t be able to do that even if they wanted to.

Everything Everywhere is now an independent company, 50% owned by a company that’s being pressured to sell of their wireless assets (Deutche Telekom) and 50% by a company that obviously isn’t too interested in the UK mobile market. o2 is owned by a company that is reportedly beginning to struggle with debt. So that’s 2 out of 3 incumbents who are in no position to try and out-muscle Hutchison Whampoa in any spectrum auctions.

Indeed, Hutchison have already invested a lot in Three for very little return, so will perhaps be keen not to spend too much more. Three obviously don’t have free reign with finances so there is a small chance that the incumbents could successfully out-muscle them in an auction, but I’m not convinced that they would attempt to do so.

I’m sure all of the network operators in the UK remember the issues that the high prices of 3G licenses caused, so I imagine they will be keen to avoid any sort of bidding war.

Of course, I agree with Ofcom when they say that there needs to be a fourth operator in the UK. Three has done a great job of disrupting the cosy club that Vodafone, o2 and EE (then T-Mobile & Orange) had before they arrived. While they have had their issues, namely in customer service, their ruthless pricing and innovative products have stopped the UK mobile market from simply standing still. Imagine where we would be if only the incumbents had obtained 3G licenses. The pitiful 3G coverage offered by o2 & Vodafone would likely be the norm.

However, I am not convinced that there needs to be safeguards implemented into the auction. Three have the backing to hold their own in these auctions, and attempting to implement any sort of spectrum reservation for a fourth operator is what is holding up this entire process. Stop attempting to protect what doesn’t need protecting and lets get this show on the road.

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Ofcom are between a rock and a hard place.

March 18, 2012 — Leave a comment

Three have also (privately) raised their concerns about the 1800 LTE situation that we have at the moment. As I said in my last post, Three do have a legitimate reason to complain about this. They have had to sit by while Ofcom have allowed O2 re-farm their 900Mhz spectrum to 3G, and now they face a situation where their impressive 3G network could be bested by an LTE network from EE, without them being able to do a thing. They now feel, perhaps rightly, that the playing field is anything but level in the UK, and are thinking about whether they can continue to do business in the UK.

But are they really? These ‘threats’ of leaving are nothing we haven’t heard from Three before now. It’s their ace card. Even though they are the smallest network, by far, they are still a major telecommunications company. 7 million customers is nothing to be sniffed at, and Ofcom cannot been seen to be ‘pushing’ a major company out of the UK. So they do need to listen, and will be keen to try and keep Three happy.

However, I feel that Ofcom have no option but to allow this. The 4G spectrum auctions are hopelessly behind schedule and the UK is now dragging behind the rest of the world in terms of 4G roll-out. Ofcom need to get things moving. The EU have also mandated that 1800Mhz be used for LTE, and probably would have something to say about Ofcom blocking its use for this technology.

As stated in their consultation document, Ofcom acknowledge that allowing EE to roll-out LTE at 1800Mhz does distort competition temporarily. However, if we look at the takeup of 3G by general consumers, it will be several years before your average consumer starts to become fully aware of the extra capabilities that 4G offers over 3G services. Three can already advertise headline speeds above what most people get on their home broadband connections with their HSPA+ network, so I don’t feel that giving EE a small head start will have too much of a damaging effect on Three.

This could even be a blessing in disguise for Three. They have already said they may hit capacity issues on their 3G network due to lack of spectrum and the delay of the 4G auctions. Now that there is precedence for allowing 4G over 1800Mhz, Three could pick up the spectrum that EE are divesting and deploy LTE over it. This would allow them to sell LTE dongles for their mobile broadband products, and therefore take a bit of strain off their 3G network.

Even if they don’t pick up the 1800Mhz spectrum, this could result in the 4G licenses from Ofcom being sold for significantly less than they would otherwise. They were already expected to sell for less than the 3G licenses did, but now that there will be at least one network who don’t feel that they need a decent slice of 800Mhz, then it is possible that they could go for even less.

Given the amount of investment Hutchison Whampoa have had to put into Three over the years, surely any action that could potentially reduce the costs of deploying LTE would be welcome?

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Ruh-roh! Vodafone isn’t happy.

March 13, 2012 — 1 Comment

It looks like Vodafone has something to say about Ofcom provisionally allowing Everything Everywhere to re-farm their 1800Mhz spectrum for LTE.

Vodafone say that they ‘seriously doubt that consumers’ best interests will be served by giving one company a significant head start before any of its competitors have a clear path to 4G.’

However, EE don’t necessarily have a head start, do they? As I previously posted, any of EEs competitors are free to try and buy the 1800Mhz spectrum that they are being forced to sell. And if Vodafone don’t want to do that, they have 900Mhz spectrum which Ofcom said they would also probably allow to be re-farmed. This is currently successfully being done by O2 for 3G, there is no reason at all that Vodafone couldn’t do the same for 4G, if they wanted to.

I don’t really understand what issue Vodafone have here. It’s their own problem if their 4G strategy consists of ‘postpone it as much as possible to avoid spending the money’. It is not in the consumers best interests to allow Vodafone to continue under investing in their network. Their 3G network coverage is shocking, and if their involvement so far in the 4G proposals is anything to go by, I can’t see their 4G network ending up much better.

The only network which may have some reason to complain is Three. They are the only network that doesn’t really have any spare spectrum to re-farm for 4G. It’s not even been 24 hours since Ofcom made this announcement yet, so perhaps they will say something in the next few days. However, given their emphasis on network improvement over the last few years I suspect they might actually be busy actually planning to roll out their own LTE network, rather than spending the time attempting to derail the process.

It’s a real shame that Vodafone feel the need to oppose this. But it is outrageous that they should try to claim they’re looking after the consumers best interests by doing so.

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The new iPad Wifi + … 4G?!

March 11, 2012 — Leave a comment

Hmm, not sure what to think about this one. Apple are technically correct when they say the new iPad has 4G, but should they really be advertising it as such in the UK? As far as I am aware, even once LTE becomes available here the chipset used isn’t compatible with any of the frequencies planned to be used for LTE here.

While you may argue that Apple are fine advertising it as 4G, I don’t think that Vodafone have any excuse for doing so. Surely that can only lead to the assumption that an iPad purchased through Vodafone will be using a 4G network? They do run the network, after all. I wouldn’t expect Vodafone to sell me a 4G phone and then not have any network at all to support it.

Hopefully this isn’t the start of a downward spiral. Three already tried to palm HSPA+ as 4G (since edited) and then had to backtrack quickly. If networks start to advertise 4G devices without having a 4G network then things can only get messy.

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4G at 1800Mhz from Everything Everywhere. Marketing ploy?

February 28, 2012 — 1 Comment

Everything Everywhere (EE) recently announced that they were going to launch LTE using 1800Mhz. But are they genuinely doing it just to speed up 4G their deployment, or to increase interest in their 1800Mhz spectrum sale?

Without EE announcing that they were going to use their 1800Mhz spectrum in order to launch 4G services early, there were very few reasons for any other operators to buy.

The auctions for 800Mhz licenses should be going ahead later this year. As 800Mhz has advantages over 1800Mhz, it would make sense for operators to just wait for the auctions to obtain the spectrum needed to operate 4G services.

However, now EE have made this move, the other operators might be concerned about letting EE have such a long head start. While 1800Mhz isn’t traditionally considered to be prime LTE spectrum, it looks like it is becoming an increasingly attractive option for spectrum-starved operators throughout Europe.

With the confirmation that EE will indeed be using their 1800Mhz for LTE, other operators may start to eye up EEs spectrum sale with increased intensity.

Providing that there are no further delays to the spectrum auction by Ofcom, 4G at the 800Mhz and 2600Mhz frequencies could be ready to go by the end of 2013, while EE are likely to be ready to commence a national rollout by the end of 2012.

Would EE be willing to go to the trouble of converting some of their current 2G frequencies to 4G, unless there were other benefits, given that they will be getting <1year head start? I’m not so sure.

By announcing this rollout now, EE are aiming to increase the selling price of the spectrum they are being forced to sell off. Until this announcement, there was no incentive for any of the other networks to pick up the 1800Mhz spectrum – they were all able to safely wait until the Ofcom auctions before any of their competitors would be rolling out 4G. They are now no longer able to do so.

This obviously isn’t a bad thing for consumers. The UK is currently lagging behind other countries in 4G deployment – this will go some way to catching up.

But it will be interesting to see who picks up EEs spectrum, and at what price.

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Time to launch

February 25, 2012 — Leave a comment

So, I have been sitting on this site for a while, unsure of whether I would have time to do it or not.

However, after the announcement by Everything Everywhere that they will be looking to roll out LTE at 1800Mhz over 2012 I have decided to give it a go.

What will I be talking about?

Well, the primary focus of this blog will be tracking and commenting on the status of 4G technology roll-outs across the UK. With the 800Mhz & 2600Mhz spectrum auctions hopefully taking place in the UK later this year, it looks like it is going to be quite a busy year for the mobile networks.

Aswell as the rollout I will be keeping an eye on new 4G capable phones being released both in the UK and elsewhere. MWC 2012 is coming up in a few days and there should be some exciting announcements coming from there.

I am going to try and stop this blog turning into one of the many that just regurgitate press releases – so if you’re looking strictly for facts that get published as soon as they hit the news wire then unfortunately you’re in the wrong place. Many of the posts here will be my own opinion that might be loosely based around recent news.

Who am I?

I am Adrian Hardy, 21 years old at time of writing and am studying Physical Geography at the University of Hull. While I might not be the best qualified to comment on mobile network strategies on paper, mobile phones & other mobile tech are a major hobby of mine and have been for some time.

As I said earlier, posting might be a bit sporadic due to time constraints, however I hope that I will be able to create a decent timeline of the UK 4G rollout here – and that some of my predictions/ramblings end up turning out to be true.

In General , , , ,
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